Poll: Sanders surges into statistical tie with Warren in California

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) is in a statistical tie with Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) atop the 2020 Democratic primary field in California, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. 

The survey represents a shift in preferences among California primary voters in the span of about two months. Warren held a 10-point lead over Sanders in a similar poll released in late September.

Twenty-four percent of likely Democratic primary voters said in the latest survey that they favor Sanders to be the Democratic nominee, representing a 5-point increase since September. Meanwhile, 22 percent said they would support Warren for the nomination, representing a 7-point drop since the previous poll. 


Sanders’s 2-point lead over Warren is within the survey’s margin of error. 

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE’s support took a significant plunge in the Los Angeles Times survey as well. Fourteen percent of respondents said they favored Biden as the Democratic nominee, a 6-point dip since September. 

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE saw his support double since the September survey. He appeared in fourth place in the poll, with 12 percent of respondents saying they favor the candidate. 

Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.), who suspended her campaign after the survey was conducted, earned 7 percent of the vote. 

The results, which come about three months before the March 3 California primary, show how “unusually fluid” the Democratic primary has been, Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, told the Los Angeles Times. 


“Voters are struggling and not sticking with their candidates,” he said. “They are moving around from candidate to candidate.”

The latest poll appeared to show that Warren and Biden stand to gain the most from Harris’s abrupt withdrawal from the race. The survey asked whom Harris supporters would name as their second choice. 

If the votes were reallocated based on those choices, Biden would experience a 3 percent bump and Warren would see a 2 percent increase. Sanders and Buttigieg would see their support rise by 1 percent. 

California awards the most delegates at the Democratic nominating convention. National and state polls have continued to show Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg atop the primary field. 

The Los Angeles Times/Berkeley IGS survey was conducted from Nov. 21-27 among a population of 1,694 California registered voters. The margin of error is 4 percentage points. 

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